RobbieB
Rodentus scientificus
Ok, I know I have no life. But, someone on asb just shot back-to-back 3's and was wondering what the odds were on this happening. So I got out the ol' slide rule and...
If a good bowler averages about 6 strikes game (guess, but I think a stat from the PBA a while back was 6.2/game) then the odds of throwing a strike on any one first ball is about 1/2. 24 strikes = odds of 1/(2^24), one in 16,777,216.
It's VERY dependent on strike %'age, as the following odds show.
%'age...Odds (300-300).......Odds (300)..........Odds (900/3)
40%..... 3,552,713,679 : 1...59,605 : 1.........Dont bother.
50%...........16,777,216 : 1.....4,096 : 1...68,719,476,736 : 1
60%................211,042 : 1........459 : 1..........96,952,601 : 1
70%..................52,020 : 1..........72 : 1...............377,112 : 1
80%.......................212 : 1..........15 : 1...................3,082 : 1
This is one reason for the explosion of 300's over the last 20-30 years, as even a small increase in strike %'age leads to a great increase in the no. of 300's shot (or at least the chances of throwing one).
BTW, to have a one-in-a-million chance of throwing 900/3, you have to strike on average on 68.1% of your first ball shots. For a 1000:1 shot, you need a strike on average 82.5/100 shots.
And, a million-to-one on a 300 game comes in at a strike %'age of 31.6%, so there is hope for the rest of us. ;-)
Rob (LCWNL)
If a good bowler averages about 6 strikes game (guess, but I think a stat from the PBA a while back was 6.2/game) then the odds of throwing a strike on any one first ball is about 1/2. 24 strikes = odds of 1/(2^24), one in 16,777,216.
It's VERY dependent on strike %'age, as the following odds show.
%'age...Odds (300-300).......Odds (300)..........Odds (900/3)
40%..... 3,552,713,679 : 1...59,605 : 1.........Dont bother.
50%...........16,777,216 : 1.....4,096 : 1...68,719,476,736 : 1
60%................211,042 : 1........459 : 1..........96,952,601 : 1
70%..................52,020 : 1..........72 : 1...............377,112 : 1
80%.......................212 : 1..........15 : 1...................3,082 : 1
This is one reason for the explosion of 300's over the last 20-30 years, as even a small increase in strike %'age leads to a great increase in the no. of 300's shot (or at least the chances of throwing one).
BTW, to have a one-in-a-million chance of throwing 900/3, you have to strike on average on 68.1% of your first ball shots. For a 1000:1 shot, you need a strike on average 82.5/100 shots.
And, a million-to-one on a 300 game comes in at a strike %'age of 31.6%, so there is hope for the rest of us. ;-)
Rob (LCWNL)
